Supply Chain VaR Calculator

Node Exposure

Asset Value at Node$50M

Total value of assets, inventory & operations at this node

Daily Revenue$500K

Revenue flowing through this node per operating day

Recovery Time45 days

Days to restore full operations after a major disruption

Hazard & Vulnerability

Baseline Annual Probability5%

Historical annual probability of a major disruption event

Vulnerability60%

% of asset value lost if a disruption event occurs

Climate Scenarios

Toggle scenarios and adjust how much climate change increases annual disruption probability.

2030 Scenario

+30% probability increase

✓

2040 Scenario

+70% probability increase

✓

2050 Scenario

+130% probability increase

✓

2030 multiplier +30%

2040 multiplier +70%

2050 multiplier +130%

Resilience Investment

Enable Resilience Measures

Vulnerability Reduction -40%

Reduction in asset loss % due to hardening, redundancy, or backup systems

Probability Reduction -20%

Reduction in annual disruption probability (e.g. flood barriers, supplier diversification)

Recovery Time Reduction -30%

Faster recovery via pre-positioned resources, backup suppliers, or response plans

Implementation Timeline

Start Year 2026

Ramp-up Period 3 yrs

Years until full effectiveness is reached after implementation begins

Effectiveness @ 2030 100%

Effectiveness @ 2040 100%

Effectiveness @ 2050 100%

Investment not yet implemented for some scenarios

VaR Confidence Level

Confidence95%

PML threshold — where the VaR line crosses each exceedance curve

Exceedance Probability Curve — Annual Loss vs. Probability of Exceedance

How to read this chart Where each curve crosses the dashed line → that scenario's VaR (PML).

Purple dashed curves show the post-resilience outcome — shifted left = lower risk.

Implementation lag means resilience may not be fully effective for near-term scenarios.